A man pulls a cart loaded with cardboard and bags across a pedestrian bridge.

World Bank Estimates That 17.3 Million Left Poverty in Mexico from 2018 to 2026

ByArturo Daen

This article by Arturo Daen originally appeared in the November 13, 2026 edition of SinEmbargo, a Mexican digital news outlet.

The World Bank identifies wage increases and the expansion of social programs among the factors that have contributed to poverty reduction

Mexico City, November 13 (SinEmbargo).- A report by the World Bank projects a reduction of 15 percentage points in poverty in Mexico between 2018 and 2026, equivalent to 17.3 million people who have left that condition. This during the years of Morena government, under Presidents Andrés Manuel López Obrador and Claudia Sheinbaum.

According to the projections published in October by the World Bank, eight years ago the percentage of the population living on an income below US$8.30 was 35.3. Meanwhile, the projection for 2026 is 20 percent.

This means that in 2018 around 43.9 million people lived in poverty, while a figure of 26.6 million is projected for 2026. A reduction of 17.3 million.

The calculation considers those living on less than US$8.30 a day, adjusted for purchasing power parity, and combines observed data through 2024 with estimates for 2025 and 2026.

World Bank graph of Mexico’s poverty rate and real GDP per capita
Table included in the World Bank report. Photo: Screenshot

The institution also expects economic growth to strengthen, rising from 0.5 percent to 2.2 percent, due among other factors to the recovery of domestic demand and exports, and “that poverty will fall to 18.7% by 2028, through the expansion of social programs and the resumption of growth.”

Another area of improvement noted in the report is employment, with the unemployment rate falling from 2.1 in 2017 to 0.5 in 2026.

As for life expectancy, it rose from 74.3 in 2017 to 75.3 years in 2024.

What Drove the Decline in Poverty?

The World Bank identifies higher real labor incomes and the expansion of social programs among the factors that have contributed to poverty reduction, although it warns that deep regional inequalities, informal employment and obstacles to accessing public services still persist.

Secretary of Agriculture and Rural Development Julio Berdegué shared the figures on his social media this Friday with a message: “This really is historic.”

In August 2025, INEGI, in its multidimensional measurement, had reported the historic figure of 13.4 million people who left poverty during López Obrador’s six-year term.

This despite the devastation of the COVID pandemic, and in contrast to what was recorded during the governments of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and the National Action Party (PAN).

Specialists then identified the cumulative 116 percent increase in the minimum wage as a key factor, although social programs also contributed.

The World Bank study also refers to a reduction in inequality, with the Gini coefficient falling from 46 in 2018 to 42.6 in 2024.

Arturo Daen
Arturo Daen
Journalist. I studied at UNAM’s FES Aragón. I have worked in the media for about 15 years. I like gathering data to tell stories and fact-checking to combat misinformation.