Falling Grain Prices Stifling Embattled Mexican Producers

ByMaría del Pilar Martínez

This article by María del Pilar Martínez originally appeared in the January 12, 2026 edition of El Economista.

The national grain market is facing a new price drop driven by an unexpected report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) that has triggered widespread pressure on corn, wheat and soybeans, worsening the outlook for Mexican producers.

The publication of an unexpected report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has plunged the domestic grain market into a phase of marked downward pressure.

“This report has caused a widespread drop in the prices of corn, wheat and soybeans, further complicating the economic situation of Mexican producers,” reported the Agricultural Market Consultants Group (GCMA).

The latest USDA report surprised international markets by confirming significant increases in planted area, yields, production and global inventories, which injected a bearish movement into futures prices.

This global dynamic translates into double bad news for the Mexican agricultural sector, “because the fall in international prices is compounded by the effect of the appreciation of the peso-dollar exchange rate, which further erodes the value in pesos of grain sales in the local market,” the report highlights.

The urgency intensifies when considering the volumes of grain from previous cycles that producers have yet to sell. The combination of abundant global supply and an appreciated exchange rate is forcing farmers to sell at an unsustainable price floor.

The figures for unmarketed grain that still weigh on the market include

  • Sinaloa An estimated 100,000 to 120,000 tons of white corn corresponding to the Fall-Winter 2024/25 cycle.
  • The Bajío region Between 600,000 and 700,000 tons of white corn from the Spring-Summer harvest aer pending sale
  • Chihuahua There is a concentration of about 1 million tons of yellow corn that are still looking for a buyer.

“The market faces a clearly bearish scenario that limits any possibility of price recovery in the short term, seriously compromising the producer’s profitability,” the report states.

It also highlights that, given the lack of timely marketing and risk management mechanisms, pressure on Mexican agricultural income will persist, demanding a coordinated response to ensure the viability of the upcoming Spring-Summer and Autumn-Winter harvests.