Mexico Requires a Deterrence Strategy

ByJosé Luis Granados Ceja

This Anti-imperialista column by José Luis Granados Ceja originally ran in the Mexico Solidarity Bulletin, the weekly newsletter of the Mexico Solidarity Project. We encourage you to subscribe!

What’s required from Mexico now, before it’s too late, is an effective deterrence strategy against potential US military action.

This year we witnessed the United States bomb and invade the capital of a Latin American country and capture its president, Nicolás Maduro; an illegal and unprovoked attack on Iran killing much of the country’s leadership; and direct threats to do the same in Cuba. The US has sharply escalated its bellicose rhetoric from US officials toward Mexico, including praise from Donald Trump himself for its 19th-century invasion of our country.

We now live in a world governed not by international law but by “might makes right.” Consider the illegal and medieval-style siege of Cuba. Sheinbaum initially stopped shipping them oil because of IEEPA tariffs imposed by the US. But the US Supreme Court struck down the tariffs. So why is Mexico still not sending oil to Cuba? The reality is that the US is militarily blockading Cuba, so any ship carrying oil faces violence — Mexico logically concludes our northern neighbor is a state military threat.

Celso Amorim, prominent Brazilian politician and key advisor to President Lula da Silva, told Phenomenal World that Brazil too must seriously consider what recent geopolitical events mean for the country’s military strategy.

“This is a world without illusions,” he said. “The country needs to develop a serious defense policy, not to confront major powers — we will never have the capacity to confront countries such as the United States, Russia, or China militarily — but to acquire a real deterrence capability.”

He explains, “It is essential that external actors know that any aggression would entail significant costs and damage.”

While President Claudia Sheinbaum clearly and consistently defends Mexico’s sovereignty, the country’s security doctrine seemingly under-emphasizes the US military threat.

The US holds no respect for our sovereignty. This month, heavily armed US forces walked across the border into Mexico without authorization. When told to leave by both citizens and the Mexican National Guard, US troops called for backup, returning to US territory only after they were satisfied. Sheinbaum downplayed the event, saying they only crossed a few meters into Mexico and calling it unintentional.

When it comes to US incursions onto our land, we cannot cede even an inch.

Mexico should continue to work at maintaining a positive relationship with our closest neighbor and number one trading partner. But acting like Trump isn’t capable of unilateral military action against us is foolish.

What an effective deterrence strategy looks like for Mexico is a question best left for military experts, but watching Iran’s missile capability at work should inspire all the rebellious peoples of the world, including us.

José Luis Granados Ceja is a journalist and political analyst based in Mexico City. He currently covers Latin America for Drop Site News. He is the co-founder of MSP’s Soberanía podcast and a presenter on the show Sin Muros on Mexico’s Canal Once. He focuses on political issues, social movements, elections and human rights. Follow him @GranadosCeja