Provoke AMLO

ByAlejandro Páez Varela

This article by Alejandro Páez Varela originally appeared in the October 5, 2026 edition of SinEmbargo, a Mexican independent digital news outlet.

1. The Worst Mistake of All

Andrés Manuel López Obrador often tells that after 2006, after the electoral fraud and the end of the Reforma sit-in, the rain of mud against him had been so thick that the right thought it had buried him in the mire. “They gave me up for dead,” he would say.

In his book ¡Gracias! (Planeta, 2024), AMLO recounts:

“In the moments of greatest State violence in the country, without ceasing to denounce Calderón’s mistaken and criminal strategy, I was able to come out unharmed from that authoritarian storm because, luckily, I decided to travel to every municipality in Mexico to raise awareness and organize the people from below; my tours at ground level saved me; since I met in the public plazas with few people, they believed I was finished and gave me up for dead, politically speaking. Calderón himself would say, when asked about me in interviews, that I was out there meeting with 10 or 20 people. In every sense, it was a miracle, because they did not bother with me, they let me work, and the visits to the towns and regions of Mexico were instructive and fundamental for the future of our movement.”

I will never forget an interview with Claudio X. González senior looking at the camera, his jaw trembling with hatred and making the “small” gesture with two fingers, saying: “For me, he will always be the ‘pejecito,’ like this, tiny.” Those were terrible years. It was so sad to see how they boasted of an electoral fraud with no apparent consequences for them.

But it is precisely that mistake, the gravest one of the opposition’s cores in Mexico, that sinks them. They belittle López Obrador by the book. They can loathe him, abominate him, condemn him, curse him, despise him. To each their own. But belittling him is underestimating him, and that has always had devastating consequences for the right. It is there, in that mistake that is an abyss, where the leader of the left grows stronger. It is there that the arrogant elites lose, because they believe they can buy everything with money; that they can fix everything with a check.

They belittle him because they are classists, and they indulge in being classist with him because they think nothing happens; that they can fix everything with their wallet and without consequences. It is clear that they fix nothing.

López Obrador’s recent appearance, this last one in particular, has that connotation. He looks strong, physically and mentally. One never knows, but I thought, as I watched him sitting in his rocking chair at La Chingada announcing his new book, Pueblo (Planeta 2026), that he is going to bury many of his enemies. They belittle him and they summon him. They do not understand that he prefers to write books, but if they provoke him, he will return. And he will be implacable. And he can be implacable.

Those who speculate that there is a rupture with Claudia Sheinbaum are mistaken, too; and so are those who bet that there is a subordination. I know that at this point they do not care about making fools of themselves, and it shows that they prefer hurling insults and lies to reflecting, but rest assured that every appearance of AMLO is agreed upon. If they do not talk it over, these are things that are understood. As Juan Gabriel would say: and don’t provoke him. Don’t provoke him, because I see him returning to the public plaza. If the President needed him, he would do it. And if Morena needed him, he would do it. Don’t provoke him, and much less belittle him, because the old leader of the left is less old than Enrique Krauze, Carlos Salinas, Felipe Calderón, Ricardo Salinas Pliego or Héctor Aguilar Camín think.

However, they will not be able to restrain themselves. I know it. They will provoke him and belittle him. There will be no shortage of another Claudio X. senior who, looking at the camera, with his jaw trembling with hatred, calls him “‘pejecito,’ like this, tiny.” And that is where they lose, out of arrogance. Because they believe they can buy everything; that they can fix everything even if they are moved by classism. They believe nothing happens, that they can fix everything with their wallet and without consequences. But they fix nothing.

So get ready, then, because that old man they give up for dead will return to the plazas if necessary. Get ready, because he has the strength to travel the whole country once more, on foot if required. And get ready, because if he returns, he is going for all the marbles. I guarantee it.

2. The Defeat of the Stateless

María Lilly Téllez was among the first. In fact, the far-right Senator missed seven ordinary sessions and one of the Permanent Commission to go to the United States and take part in events of far-right groups, according to a report by the SinEmbargo Data Unit with information as of last May 8 [“Lilly Téllez’s pro-Trump and far-right agenda intensifies during Senate sessions,” by Arturo Daen]. On each visit, I believe, Fox News received her so she could speak ill of Mexico. She kept doing it. Each time with less impact in the Mexican media and even over there.

After her would come her employer, Ricardo Salinas Pliego. Then Alejandro Moreno Cárdenas and others. The contacts of the three are very similar and public. They make use of the Cuban diaspora –which serves Marco Rubio, Secretary of State– although I don’t know whether Lilly, Salinas Pliego and “Alito” are useful to the Cubans, because their weight in Mexico shrinks year after year.

Now the club of the stateless has problems, new problems: its great ally is the US far right. It always has been, but now that it is in power it is not only an ally: it is its support. Very recently this club, originally united by its hatred of López Obrador, thought that Donald Trump’s aggressive interventionist agenda opened the opportunity of a lifetime for it. They thought Mexico would surrender easily to MAGA. And the opposite happened.

Two facts. First: the Latinobarómetro confirmed last week what the Pew Center had already warned, that the rejection of Trump among Mexicans is the highest in all of Latin America; their disapproval of Washington’s foreign policy is close to 79 percent, followed by Honduras, with 72; Guatemala, with 71; and Uruguay, with 70 percent. And second fact: it is highly likely that MAGA and Trump will lose the Senate, which makes the removal of the US president more real.

Both facts are terrible for the club of the stateless. They tied their own political destiny to that of a sinking ship; they embraced Trump because they wanted to take advantage of the far-right winds in their favor, without knowing that Trump would head, through the thickest fog, toward an archipelago. And I would say more: they have betrayed their country; they have asked Washington to invade Mexican soil and they agreed to dance to the rhythm it set for them.

They bet against Mexico, and they will be left with defeat and a tattoo on their foreheads that says “TRAITORS.”

3. But What’s the Need: Three Notes

One. How broad can Trump’s defeat be in November? He has said the polls always underestimate him, but even so, the US economy is so bad that in the coming weeks it could sink further. New polls by The New York Times and Siena University one month before the elections say that voters’ dissatisfaction with the economy, concern about political extremism and frustration with Trump have put the Democrats within reach of snatching four and even five governorships that Republicans hold today. The Democrats have several paths to regain the majority in the Senate, says The New York Times, “despite a complex electoral landscape that favored Republicans ahead of the midterm elections.” The Democrats need four seats from the Republicans and to hold three in key states. Can it be done? A month ago, no. Today, yes, and the outlook will most likely worsen for Trump in the coming weeks.

Two. Forgive me if I am so basic, but I can’t stop thinking about that moment in November when the United States wipes the smile off Ricardo Salinas Pliego, Lilly Téllez, Alejandro Moreno Cárdenas and so many stateless people who would like to see us subjugated to Washington, like Venezuela or like Iraq. I think about that moment and I have to imagine it and I enjoy it. It lasted them so little. It was a terrifying journey toward the far right that at some point was going to stop and, it seems, it is now. They can still do Mexico a lot of harm, of course. Nobody should celebrate victory yet. But November will be a month to remember. They can still do Brazil harm, and I would tell it to resist; that the Brazilian progressive forces do what they can democratically do but stop any Trumpist attempt. That they resist a little longer. That they not allow the mistake other peoples made. The far right is about to suffer a hard blow to the back of the neck. A US majority is very close to putting a dam on the outpouring of hatred. Resist. Resist. And I want to see the faces of those others. I’ll settle for imagining them.

Three. Many things stand out from AMLO’s new book. One important one, which all followers of his movement should learn, is the weight the direct relationship with the people has for him; never detaching from the people. And the other highlight is the messages he sends to Morena through Pueblo. Popularity, López Obrador says, does not justify a candidacy. “If the candidate with whom we can win is the husband or wife of the authority they are going to replace, it is better to lose; if there is a very handsome or witty, famous candidate with whom we can win, but there is evidence that he is a crook, well, better not, what’s the need,” writes the former president. I think it is a bit late for the 2027 election regarding candidates for Governor, but not for the deputies. It seems to me that the governing party has much to reflect on regarding its alliances; on the unprecedented power it has given the Green Party even if it denies it, and on what those in the Labor Party misunderstood, who now feel like birds shooting at the shotguns. Morena’s leadership needs to talk with itself and turn toward its membership. It must learn to translate discontent into opportunity. If people say they are not satisfied with the agreements with the Greens, it should revoke them. That’s what I think. But who am I: I just watch.

Alejandro Páez Varela
Journalist and writer.
He is the author of the novels Corazón de Kaláshnikov (Alfaguara 2014, Planeta 2008), Música para Perros (Alfaguara 2013), El Reino de las Moscas (Alfaguara 2012), and Oriundo Laredo (Alfaguara).