Trump’s Migrant ID Restrictions Could Curb Remittances: IBERO Specialist

ByLuis Reyes

This article by Luis Reyes originally appeared in the May 25, 2026 edition of Prensa IBERO.

The new financial provisions promoted by the Donald Trump administration could have immediate effects on the Mexican migrant population, such as greater obstacles to using the Consular Registration Card and the ITIN (Individual Taxpayer Identification Number), tools that for years have allowed people without immigration documents to send remittances, open bank accounts, and pay taxes.

According to Dr. Margarita Núñez Chaim, Coordinator of the Migration Affairs Program at the Ibero-American University (IBERO) , the most visible impact could be reflected in a further reduction in remittances sent to Mexico, a phenomenon that, she stressed, already began to be observed last year.

The specialist explained in an interview with Prensa IBERO that, after more than a decade of sustained growth, 2025 saw the first decrease of approximately 4.5% in remittance flows. Although remittances remain one of the country’s main sources of foreign currency, she attributed the decline to the increasingly restrictive environment for undocumented migrants in the United States.

According to Dr. Núñez Chaim, this was due to raids by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), which led to reduced working hours for migrants and caused them to avoid certain places for fear of being identified, detained, or deported. In that context, she explained, the new restrictions could exacerbate this trend.

Dr. Núñez Chaim explained that one of the most significant changes involves the Consular Registration Card, a document issued by Mexican consulates that serves as proof of identity regardless of immigration status. Historically, this document has been used to open bank accounts, rent housing, complete administrative procedures, and even facilitate money transfers.

The problem, she explained, is that by placing these documents under greater surveillance or suspicion for illicit activities, it generates the indirect effect of restricting migrants’ access to the formal financial system.

One instrument affected by the new regulations is the ITIN, the tax identification number that allows migrant workers to file and pay taxes in the U.S. even without certain immigration documents. The academic noted that this mechanism has been a way to incorporate millions of workers into the U.S. tax system.

From her perspective, there is a contradiction between the discourse that seeks to tighten controls and the real effects of these measures, since instead of encouraging greater fiscal and financial formality, they could push part of the migrant population towards alternative and informal mechanisms to manage resources and send money.

Among those risks, she identified the growth of informal intermediaries, charges for shipping services outside the banking system, and spaces where economic abuses or schemes linked to illegal activities could appear.

The expert also warned about the social implications for Mexico. She noted that a significant portion of recipient households use remittances for everyday expenses: food, housing, transportation, health, and education.

A sustained decrease in the flow of resources, she explained, could translate into lower chances of staying in school, reduced basic consumption, and greater vulnerability. In addition to the impact on families, she noted that a sustained drop in remittances would also have macroeconomic effects by reducing foreign exchange earnings and slowing down domestic consumption chains.

Regarding the institutional response, Núñez Chaim considered that the Mexican government still has room to build negotiation strategies and alliances with financial and legislative actors in the US to try to moderate the scope of these measures.

“What is at stake is not only the flow of money between countries, but the living conditions of millions of families who depend on those incomes to cover basic needs,” she concluded.