Mexican Economy Grows 3.2% Annually in the Third Quarter of 2026, Its Biggest Advance in Three Years

ByEl Chamuco Staff

This article by El Chamuco Staff originally appeared in the October 30, 2026 edition of El Chamuco, a Mexican political satire and news magazine.

(October 30, 2026).— GDP rose 0.9% compared with the previous quarter, driven by services and industry, while agricultural activities registered a contraction. The result corresponds to INEGI’s timely estimate.

The Mexican economy registered annual growth of 3.2% during the third quarter of 2026, its biggest expansion in 12 quarters, according to the timely estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) published this Friday by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).

Compared with the immediately preceding quarter, GDP increased 0.9% in real terms and with seasonally adjusted figures. With this result, the economy accumulated two consecutive quarters of quarterly growth, although it moderated its pace relative to the 1.5% advance registered in the second quarter.

Growth was driven by tertiary activities, mainly related to services, which increased 1.1%, and secondary activities, which include industry, with an advance of 0.8%. In contrast, primary activities, corresponding to the agricultural sector, decreased 0.4%.

Services and Industry Drive Annual Growth

Compared with the same quarter of 2025, tertiary activities grew 3.3%; secondary activities, 3.1%; and primary activities, 1.8%, according to the timely estimate data.

The annual growth of 3.2% represented the Mexican economy’s biggest advance in 12 quarters. In addition, GDP accumulated four consecutive periods with positive annual variations.

INEGI chart: annual real GDP growth, Q1 2023 to Q3 2026
Annual real GDP growth, Q1 2023–Q3 2026 (in Spanish). Chart: INEGI, Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP

During the first nine months of 2026, the economy registered annual growth of 1.9%, according to the preliminary results released following INEGI’s publication.

The institute specified that the data correspond to a timely estimate, prepared with the statistical information available at the time of its publication. The definitive figures will be released later and could show modifications.

Mexico’s Performance and the U.S. Economy

The Mexican result coincides with an acceleration of the U.S. economy, the main destination of the country’s exports. Between January and September 2026, the United States received 84.8% of Mexican non-oil exports, according to the data provided for this article.

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that that country’s GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.4% during the third quarter, compared with the 2.2% advance registered in the previous period.

Mexican economic activity had faced pressures during 2025, amid the uncertainty generated by U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policy and the imposition of tariffs. Despite that environment, the country avoided an annual contraction of its economy.

In early October, the International Monetary Fund projected growth of 1.5% for Mexico in 2026, although it warned that external uncertainty continues to represent a risk to its expansion.

The timely third-quarter figure offers a signal of greater dynamism, although the definitive figures and the performance of the last period of the year will make it possible to gauge the economic growth of 2026 more precisely.